I read a few books authored by Neil Howe and William Strauss back in the early 2000’s. The first one was titled Generations, and the second, written afterwards, was The Fourth Turning. The Fourth Turning is a deeper dive into the third and fourth cycles of our modern saeculum, a Latin term which means a long period of time, typically a generation or a natural century. There are four cycles in a saeculum: High, Spiritual Awakening, Unraveling, and Crisis. The Fourth Turning is the time when society turns from an Unraveling cycle to a Crisis cycle. The authors speculated in The Fourth Turning that, based on historical saeculums and their cycles, our next Crisis cycle would begin somewhere around 2005, give or take a few years.
When I read The Fourth Turning I was amazed at how much they had gotten right so far, as the book had been written a decade earlier. As time has passed I am even more amazed at what they continue to get right. I have recently watched interviews with Neil Howe and he holds onto their original timeline. The Crisis began in 2008 with the housing bubble burst and it will last for about 22 years, the length of a typical cycle in a saeculum. The Crisis events will increase until we reach an apex, usually a civil or world war, when we will turn to a new High. Neil still believes that we are on course for an apex event around 2030.
Although unraveling is a negative term, the period is actually a fairly peaceful time with hiccups here and there, and with a lot of societal progress. However, many events that occur during an Unraveling are pivot points that move us into a Crisis. The Unraveling cycle took place during the 1980’s and 1990’s. Neil and William do not believe that 9-11 was the event that moved us into a Crisis cycle. Life went back to normal too quickly afterwards. The housing crisis was what began all the difficulties that we have been dealing with ever since.
I have lived through both cycles my entire adult life. If the authors predictions are indeed correct, and I continue to grace this earth with my presence, I will live through a High in my senior years. I will have lived during all four cycles since I was born right as the last Spiritual Awakening occurred. Below is my visual take on the Unraveling and Crisis cycles during my lifetime.
